With flooding in the recent past, the Pagosa Springs area faces another significant storm in its future this weekend, according to meteorologists.
According to forecasts by the National Weather Service (NWS) and local meteorologists, the storm will likely begin Friday, with the bulk of the moisture coming between Sunday morning and Monday.
At a Tuesday briefing, Grand Junction based NWS Service Hydrologist Erin Walter indicated that Pagosa Springs has a 46 percent chance to receive more than 2 inches of rain between Sunday and Monday and a 15 percent chance to receive more than 3 inches of rain during this period.
She highlighted that the snow line for this storm will be significantly lower than the previous storms that caused flooding, with snow levels starting at about 10,000 feet and dropping to 9,000 feet.
She stated that the event will likely lead to increases in river levels, although she added that forecasting indicates that major flooding is unlikely to occur and that there is currently low confidence in the accuracy of the forecasted precipitation amounts, temperatures and snow levels.
At a joint work session held by the Pagosa Springs Town Council and Archuleta County Board of County Commissioners on Monday, Oct. 26, local meteorologist Shawn Prochazka from Pagosa Weather largely echoed Walter’s comments.
Prochazka indicated that the “brunt of the storm” will be on Sunday, Nov. 1, and Monday, Nov. 2.
He explained that models are predicting up to 2 inches of rainfall in the area during that time, but that recent models were trending down for lower rain total amounts.
He also noted that precipitation above 10,000 feet is going to fall as snow.
“So, that is not going to contribute to run off in our rivers,” he said.
In an Oct. 27 interview, Prochazka added that there is a significant amount of snow currently in the high country, although it is difficult to estimate since the snow telemetry (SNOTEL) operated by the Natural Resources Conservation Service on Wolf Creek Pass is at about 11,000 feet, near the bottom of the “good snow” that has fallen.
On Oct. 28, the SNOTEL site on the summit of Wolf Creek Pass indicated that the location currently had 4 inches of snow water equivalent and a snow depth of 12 inches.
On Oct. 27, Wolf Creek Ski Area reported in a Facebook post that it had received 20 inches of snow in the recent storms for a midway depth of 12 inches and a year-to-date snowfall of 22 inches.
On Oct. 27, Prochazka commented that he is “not too concerned” about flooding impacts from the upcoming storms due to them containing less moisture than the storms that impacted the area on Oct. 22 and Oct. 23.
He commented that there will likely be a spike in the rivers on Sunday night or Monday morning, but that he believes it is unlikely to reach flood stage.
However, he noted that the highly saturated ground from previous rain will accelerate runoff from the upcoming storms since very little water will be absorbed by the ground where the rain falls.
By mid-morning on Wednesday, Oct. 28, Incident Commander Trainee Thad McKain, who serves on the Colorado Incident Management Team here in response to the flooding, indicated the forecasted moisture is increasing.
“They were ramping the numbers down. They have ramped the moisture totals up,” McKain said, adding, “It’s too early for them to start pulling triggers on the potential for any flooding. ... They definitely do not think we’re going to have flooding like what we just experienced. We could see some areas with flooding. The other issue is how much more is this moisture going to impact what we have, and how [many] new issues are they going to create. So, that’s where we’re at right now.”
On the morning of Wednesday, Oct. 28, the NWS forecasted that conditions would remain sunny with highs in high 40s or low 50s and lows in the low 30s through Thursday, Oct. 29, with mostly cloudy conditions and a 20 percent chance of snow showers after midnight starting on Thursday night. The low Thursday night is predicted to be 37 degrees.
Friday morning, Oct. 30, will see a chance of snow showers before noon and a slight chance of rain or thunder after noon, with mostly cloudy conditions and a 30 percent chance of precipitation.
Friday evening will bring a chance of rain and snow showers before 3 a.m., shifting to a chance of rain showers after 3 a.m., with mostly cloudy skies and a low of 38 degrees. The chance of precipitation is 50 percent.
Saturday, Oct. 31, will see showers with thunderstorms possible after noon along with mostly cloudy conditions, a 60 percent chance of precipitation and a high of 45 degrees.
Saturday night features a chance of rain showers before 3 a.m., shifting to rain and snow showers afterward with mostly cloudy skies and a low of 37 degrees.
Sunday, Nov. 1, and Sunday night are expected to feature rain and snow showers with some thunder possible, cloudy skies, a daytime high of 39 degrees and a nighttime low of 34 degrees.
Rain and snow showers are likely on Monday, Nov. 2, with partially sunny skies and a high of 39 degrees.
Monday night brings a chance of rain and snow showers along with partly cloudy skies and a low of 31 degrees.
Tuesday, Nov. 3, is expected to be mostly sunny with a high of 44 degrees.
For more forecasting information, see NWS forecasts at www.weather.gov/ or Pagosa Weather’s forecasts at www.pagosaweather.org/ or on the organization’s Facebook page.
josh@pagosasun.com
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