Some long-awaited precipitation began falling across Pagosa County on Wednesday, April 1, with higher mountain elevations receiving snow and lower local elevations seeing mostly rain.
As of 2 p.m. on Wednesday, Wolf Creek Ski Area had reported 17 inches of new snow, bringing the season total to 190 inches.
According to data entered into the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network, areas of Archuleta County received anywhere between .4 and .85 inches of rain from March 31 to midday April 1.
Snow was expected to keep falling in the Wolf Creek area throughout the night, with the National Weather Service (NWS) predicting new snow accumulation of less than 1 inch possible.
The NWS is also forecasting a 20 percent chance of snow showers in the Wolf Creek area for today, Thursday, April 2, with a high of 35 degrees. Patchy, blowing snow is expected from 8 a.m to 5 p.m., with wind gusts as high as 45 mph.
The low for today is forecast to be 24 degrees with a 30 percent chance of snow showers in the evening and wind gusts as high as 50 mph.
There is a 40 percent chance of snow showers continuing on Friday, April 3, with a high forecast at 32 degrees and wind gusts as high as 40 mph. The low is forecast to be 15 degrees with mostly clear skies in the evening.
For Saturday, April 4, the high is forecast to be 40 degrees with sunny skies. The low is forecast at 23 degrees with mostly clear skies in the evening.
Similar weather is expected on Sunday, April 5, with a high forecast of 41 degrees and sunny skies. There is also a 20 percent chance of snow showers after noon. The low is forecast to be 23 degrees with mostly clear skies in the evening.
For the Pagosa Springs area, a freeze watch and freeze warning was issued for Wednesday night into Thursday morning, April 2.
Mostly sunny skies are expected in town with a forecast high of 60 degrees. The low is forecast at 27 degrees, and the NWS has also issued a freeze watch lasting into Friday morning, April 3.
The high forecast for Friday is 55 degrees with sunny skies and a low forecast of 17 degrees with mostly clear skies at night.
For Saturday, April 4, the high is forecast at 62 degrees with sunny skies. The low is forecast at 24 degrees with mostly clear skies in the evening.
For Sunday, April 5, the high is forecast at 64 degrees, with a slight chance of rain showers after noon. The low is forecast to be 27 degrees with partly cloudy skies in the evening.
The cooler weather follows what might have been the area’s hottest March on record.
According to Pagosa Weather’s Shawn Prochazka, Pagosa Springs had 10 daily record highs in March — March 1, 14, 18-22 and 24-26.
In an email to The SUN, Prochazka notes the area hit a new high temperature of 79 degrees on March 20, beating the previous March high of 73 degrees.
“Climatological data for Pagosa Springs is not broken down year to year so I can’t say definitively that this is our warmest March, but with 10 daily record highs and a new monthly record 6° higher than the previous record, it’s a safe bet that this was our warmest March on record,” he wrote.
River flows
According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), as of 2 p.m. on Wednesday, April 1, the San Juan River in downtown Pagosa Springs had a flow rate of 755 cubic feet per second (cfs).
That reading is up more than 150 cfs from the previous week’s reading of 595 cfs.
The record high flow for April 1 was recorded in 1986 at 1,230 cfs, while the record low was recorded in 1977 at 53 cfs. The median flow for April 1 is 203 cfs and the mean flow is 282 cfs.
The Piedra River near Arboles was flowing at a rate of 440 cfs as of 2 p.m. on Wednesday, April 1, according to the USGS.
That reading is up slightly from the previous week’s reading of 434 cfs.
The median flow for April 1 is 450 cfs and the mean flow is 523 cfs. The record high flow for April 1 was recorded in 1986 at 1,850 cfs, while the record low was recorded in 1977 at 63 cfs.
Snowpack
According to data from the Natural Resource Conservation Services, as of 2 p.m. on Wednesday, April 1, Wolf Creek Pass at 10,930 feet had a snow water equivalent of 8.2 inches, compared to that date’s median of 28.4 inches. That amount is 29 percent of that date’s median snow water equivalent.
Snowpack levels are monitored by measuring snow water equivalents that gauge how much water is held within a snowfield, and are significant predictors of springtime runoff.
The San Miguel, Dolores, Animas and San Juan River basins as a whole are listed at just 9 percent of its 30-year median snowpack.
The Wolf Creek summit had the second highest current snow water equivalent in the San Miguel, Dolores, Animas and San Juan River basins, and the Upper Rio Grande basin, behind the Black Mesa site with 11.3 inches of snow water equivalent as of press time Wednesday.
clayton@pagosasun.com
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