Editor’s note: Danelle Fernandez is a student at Pagosa Springs High School. She and her classmates in the Josh Kurz’s global sciences class analyzed snow data extending back to 1940. The following is an extension of the article by Kurz that appeared in the Jan. 16 issue of The SUN. The article by Kurz was limited to SNOTEL data that only extends back to 1979, and, according to Kurz, “My Global Science students analyzed a longer period of record by including February 1st snow course data that extends back to 1940. Snow course data was collected at the Upper San Juan site on the 1st of the month between January and June.”
I think we’ve all seen those movies where on the side of the road there are some people waving signs and hollering about how the “End is near.”
You laughed it off at the time and continued with the movie, but now you’re thinking they’re probably right. I don’t blame you. It’s a scary time to be alive. Los Angeles was on fire again, and the snow is almost nonexistent for us in Pagosa Springs.
While it is predicted to snow a little, a little isn’t enough to make up for the lack of snow this past December. So, the world must be ending, right?
In actuality, no. The world is not ending quite yet. While the snow levels are disturbingly low, they aren’t the worst that Pagosa has seen. In fact, compared to the last 86 years, we aren’t even in the top five worst years. So, how do I know that? Well, I have to introduce you to a good friend of mine, the Upper San Juan SNOTEL.
The Upper San Juan SNOTEL is the site on Wolf Creek Pass that measures our snowpack, more scientifically known as snow water equivalent (SWE), and helps us approximate how much runoff will feed into the San Juan River in the spring. SWE is found by weighing the snow at the site to predict how much water is in the snow. Most of my data will come from this measuring site.
According to SNOTEL data, the lowest Feb. 1 SWE since 1940 is as follows (with the rank, year and Feb. 1 SWE):
1. 2000, 4.7 inches.
2. 1990, 5.1 inches.
3. 1977, 5.4 inches.
4. 2018, 5.5 inches.
5. 2006, 6.1 inches.
6. 1996, 7.1 inches.
7. 2025, 7.2 inches.
8. 1946, 7.7 inches.
9. 2002, 8.3 inches.
10. 1959, 8.4 inches.
So, how abnormal is this year’s snowpack and what should we be expecting?
As I said, Pagosa has seen worse, but let’s first discuss what is considered “normal” according to the average SWE of the past 86 years.
According to a graph from the NRCS, up until December we were on track for a strong year. Since then we’ve practically flatlined.
As of writing this, Feb. 1, we should’ve had about 17 inches of SWE, but we’ve instead gotten a measly 7.2 inches. However, as the graph shows, while we get a majority of our water from snowfall, there’s still precipitation seen well into October. So, while this year’s snow is underwhelming at best, we can still hope that spring showers will bring us summer flowers.
Now, let’s look at some numbers. On Feb. 1, the snowpack was at 7.2 inches, which is not nearly as bad compared to our worst recorded Feb. 1, 4.7 inches in 2000.
So, while it’s the cause for some concern, it is not the first sign of the apocalypse.
If you need more reassurance, graphing the Feb. 1 SWE since 1940 illustrates to us how bipolar our weather patterns are. We have our “good” and our “bad” years, but not many “normal” years. There is rarely anything normal when it comes to weather.
So, what should we be expecting come April 1 and the end of winter? Well, my very inquisitive friends, we can look at the past 85 years’ worth of snow data to predict April 1 of this year.
Based on data, as we had 7.2 inches this Feb. 1, we can assume we will see around 10-20 inches of SWE on April 1. So, while we might see a below-average runoff, it isn’t a sign that the sky is falling.
Now, let’s take all that and apply it to our everyday lives.
Going back to the river, our part of the San Juan is one of the biggest assets of Pagosa alongside the hot springs and the mountains. It not only brings in tourists, but also provides enrichment to the community and a wildlife habitat. We also have to think about our neighbors downstream. The San Juan will eventually lead into Lake Powell, which provides power across the desert southwest. California and Arizona also use our water for agriculture. So, with the possibility of a lower river due to poor snow, I would suggest a couple of things. If you rely on the river for income, expect a slow year and budget accordingly. Brush up on your fire safety. Don’t have bonfires, use this as motivation to stop smoking — whatever lowers the risk of us burning.
Weather is unpredictable at its best and ,with a bit of luck, we’ll get some snow this week. I’m personally hoping for a strong monsoon season.
