Winter weather continues to linger in Pagosa Country, with another round of mountain snow on the way this weekend.
According to the National Weather Service (NWS), starting today, Thursday, April 30, snow showers are likely along the Wolf Creek Pass area with a high of 39 degrees. New snow accumulation of less than 1 inch is possible. The low is forecast to be 26 degrees with snow showers overnight leaving 1 to 3 inches of new snow accumulation.
There is a 90 percent chance of snow showers on Friday, May 1, with a high of 30 degrees forecast. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches during the day is possible. The chance of snow showers will decrease to 70 percent in the evening with a low of 23 degrees expected. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches is possible Friday night.
For Saturday, May 2, there is a 40 percent chance of snow showers with partly sunny skies and a high near 38 degrees forecast. The low is forecast to be 24 degrees with a slight chance of snow showers and then mostly clear skies.
For Sunday, May 3, the high is forecast to be 44 degrees with a 30 percent chance of snow showers after noon. The low is forecast to be 29 degrees with a 20 percent chance of snow showers in the evening.
Slightly warmer temperatures are expected in the Pagosa Springs area over the weekend, accompanied by rain and snow shower mixes.
Today, Thursday, April 30, the high in Pagosa Springs is forecast to be 62 degrees with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Rain showers are likely to continue into the evening, possibly mixed with snow showers. The low is forecast at 29 degrees.
Rain is likely on Friday, May 1, mixed with snow showers until 9 a.m., followed by rain showers. The high is forecast to be 55 degrees and the low is forecast at 26 degrees with rain showers likely in the evening.
For Saturday, May 2, the high is forecast to be 61 degrees with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. The low is forecast to be 26 degrees with partly cloudy skies.
Sunny skies should return on Sunday, May 3, with a high of 67 degrees forecast along with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. The low is forecast to be 31 degrees with partly cloudy skies.
Long-range forecasts
According to an April 29 press release from AccuWeather, “A quickly developing El Nino is expected to help shape the summer pattern by influencing the tropics and shifting storm tracks, contributing to a divide between wetter areas in the middle of the country and hotter, drier zones farther west and south.”
The press release also notes that AccuWeather long-range experts indicate there is currently a 15 to 20 percent chance of a Super El Nino developing before the end of the year.
“Overall average temperatures are expected to be above historical averages across most of the country this summer,” it adds.
Drought
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), as of April 23, more than 80 percent of Archuleta County remained in a stage three — extreme drought stage. The remainder of the county, primarily the western portion, is in a stage two — severe drought.
All of the state is currently in a moderate drought stage or higher, with the northwestern portion of the state mostly falling in an exceptional drought stage.
River flows
According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), as of 2 p.m. on Wednesday, April 29, the San Juan River in downtown Pagosa Springs had a flow rate of 356 cubic feet per second (cfs).
The record high flow for April 29 was recorded in 2019 at 1,730 cfs, while the record low was recorded in 2002 at 139 cfs.
The median flow for this date is 722 cfs, and the mean flow is 814 cfs.
The Piedra River near Arboles was flowing at a rate of 290 cfs as of 2 p.m Wednesday, April 29, according to the USGS.
The median flow for April 29 is 822 cfs and the mean flow is1,070 cfs. The record high flow for this date was recorded in 1979 at 3,650 cfs, while the record low was recorded in 2002 at 96.3 cfs.
clayton@pagosasun.com
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