Lots of sun and warmer-than-average temperatures hung around Pagosa Country over the last week as a record high temperature was matched on Sunday, March 1, at 63 degrees in Pagosa Springs.
According to a forecast made by Shawn Prochazka with Pagosa Weather, last Sunday’s high matched the previous record set in 1943.
The high for today, Thursday, March 5, in Pagosa Springs is forecast to be 57 degrees with sunny skies, according to the National Weather Service (NWS). A slight chance of rain and snow showers is expected in the evening, with a chance of precipitation listed at 20 percent and a low near 21 degrees. Wind gusts as high as 20 mph are also expected.
A 30 percent chance of showers is expected for tomorrow, Friday, March 6, with a high of 44 degrees and otherwise partly sunny skies. The low is forecast at 15 degrees with partly cloudy skies at night.
Sun and warm temperatures will return over the weekend with the high forecast at 53 degrees on Saturday, March 7. The low is forecast at 19 degrees with mostly clear skies in the evening.
On Sunday, March 8, the high is forecast at 61 degrees with sunny skies and the low is forecast at 23 degrees with clear skies in the evening.
Sunny and breezy conditions are expected along Wolf Creek Pass today, Thursday, March 5, with the high forecast at 35 degrees and wind gusts of 40 mph possible. Chances for snow in the Wolf Creek area will start tonight with a 40 percent chance of snow showers expected and a low of 17 degrees forecasted.
Friday, March 6, looks to be the most likely time for snow accumulation along the pass, with a 60 percent chance of snow showers predicted and a high of 21 degrees forecasted. New snow accumulations of 1-2 inches is possible, according to the NWS. Chances of snow showers will decrease to 20 percent in the evening, with a low of 14 degrees forecasted.
A slight chance of snow showers is predicted for Saturday morning, March 7, with a high forecast of 31 degrees and otherwise sunny skies. The low is forecast at 19 degrees with mostly clear skies in the evening.
For Sunday, March 8, the high is forecast at 40 degrees with sunny skies and the low is forecast at 25 degrees with clear skies in the evening.
Snowpack
According to the Natural Resource Conservation Services (NRCS), as of March 4, the San Miguel, Dolores, Animas and San Juan river basins were measured to be at 57 percent of its 30-year median snowpack.
This is down from the Feb. 25 report of 64 percent for the 30-year median snowpack.
The statewide snowpack as of March 4 was at 61 percent. This is down from the Feb. 25 report of 63 percent.
As of noon Wednesday, March 4, Wolf Creek Pass, at 10,930 feet, had a snow water equivalent of 14.4 inches. This is down slightly from last week’s report on Feb. 25 that indicated a snow water equivalent of 14.7 inches.
Snowpack levels are monitored by measuring snow water equivalents that gauge how much water is held within a snowfield and are significant predictors of springtime runoff.
For the second week in a row, the Wolf Creek summit has the highest current snow water equivalent in the San Miguel, Dolores, Animas and San Juan River basins, and the Upper Rio Grande basin, as of press time Wednesday.
Dan Gibbs, executive director of the Colorado Department of Natural Resources, spoke about the low statewide snowpack at Wednesday’s Colorado Parks and Wildlife Commission meeting and what that could mean in the state moving forward.
He acknowledge the snowpack is at about 61 percent of average statewide, adding, “It’s very challenging, to say the least.”
Gibbs indicated that February and March tend to be Colorado’s snowiest months, but acknowledged only about 4 inches is expected in areas of the high country next week and there’s a lot to make up for.
“If things don’t turn around, it’s going to be very challenging for us, to say the least,” he said. “And, it’s gonna trickle to our forest health challenges and potential wildfire activity that we’re going to see in Colorado.”
He further added it is not making the ongoing Colorado River negotiations any easier.
Drought
Drought conditions in Archuleta County improved over the last week, with the U.S. Drought Monitor’s (USDM’s) most recent map showing 100 percent of the county in an “abnormally dry” stage and 47.89 percent of the county, mostly the northern half, in a “moderate drought” stage.
The USDM’s most recent drought condition map was released on Thursday, Feb. 26.
According to the USDM’s map released on Feb. 19, 100 percent of the county was in an “abnormally dry” stage and with 47.89 percent of the county (the northern half) in a “moderate drought” stage. The far northwestern portion of the county (2.17 percent) was in a “severe drought” stage.
The most recent USDM map indicates that there is no longer any percentage of the county in a “severe drought” stage.
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