Monsoonal moisture has officially made its way to Pagosa Country, according to Pagosa Weather, bringing with it the pattern of sunny mornings followed by chances of thunderstorms in the afternoons.
On Monday, Pagosa Weather’s Arleen Prochazka reported via the organization’s website that there had been a change in air mass, marking the beginning of the monsoons.
On Tuesday, discussing satellite imagery, Prochazka wrote, “We are seeing weak monsoon moisture wrapping around the High and into southwest Colorado. We are getting scraps.”
Through next Tuesday, the organization notes, skies will be clear to partly cloudy in the mornings with clouds increasing at noon and moving to mostly cloudy.
“Then clouds will clear out overnight as we cool,” Prochazka wrote. “Expect thunderstorms with lightning, small hail, gusty winds and drops in temperature from noon to 8pm each day.”
But, the organization indicates, what parts of Pagosa Country see precipitation will vary.
“We are seeing its typical beginning phase behavior,” Prochazka wrote. “Not everyone is going to get rain.”
Following Tuesday’s precipitation, the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS) showed reports ranging from zero north and northwest of Pagosa Springs to .44 inches received in an area 4.6 miles southwest of Pagosa Springs.
“There will be rain lottery winners and losers,” Prochazka wrote.
The Pagosa Weather forecast adds, “As we move into monsoon season, the lower atmosphere will become more saturated and the thunderstorms will have wider footprint as to where they drop rain.”
The forecast also notes the direction of movement of storms will vary in the coming days.
Next Tuesday, July 21, it states, storms are expected to move from the southwest to the northeast as the high sinks to our southeast, which the organization notes is the “ideal flow” for the area’s monsoon season.
The National Weather Service predicts daytime highs ranging from near 80 to the mid-80s over the coming week.
Fire danger, restrictions remain
The area’s jurisdictions continue to be under Stage 2 fire restrictions, with the San Juan National Forest reporting Wednesday that the fire danger continues to be very high.
Recreationists are encouraged to check local restrictions before heading out.
Additionally, the U.S. Drought Monitor reports that, as of July 7, 100 percent of Archuleta County remains in drought, with the majority of the county falling into the severe drought category and 36.15 percent, primarily in the western and southwestern portion of the county, falling into the extreme drought category.
randi@pagosasun.com
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