Pagosa Country is expected to receive some rainfall over the weekend, with the National Weather Service (NWS) forecasting chances of rain every day from today, Thursday, July 23, through Sunday, July 26.
Heavy rainfall was expected on Wednesday, July 22, with the NWS issuing a flood watch for the area until 3 a.m. this morning, Thursday, July 23.
According to a forecast from Shawn Prochazka with Pagosa Weather issued on July 20, “we’re going to get wet.”
Prochazka explains that “monsoon action is here for a while,” also noting the area’s best surge of moisture was expected on Wednesday.
To view local rainfall amounts, visit the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network at www.cocorahs.org and view Archuleta County.
Prochazka also notes that “monsoon moisture and instability will stick with us,” indicating that the area will continue to see scattered storms each afternoon this next week.
“Storms will be capable of producing short periods of heavy rain over small areas,” Prochazka explains.
Other highlights from Prochazka’s forecast note that fire danger is still very high in the area, with the San Juan National Forest and Archuleta County under stage two fire restrictions.
For more information on those restrictions, visit https://sheriff.archuletacounty.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/ACSO-Stage-2-Fire-Restrictions.pdf, or https://www.fs.usda.gov/r02/sanjuan/alerts.
Record high tied
On Wednesday, Pagosa Weather noted Stevens Field Airport hit 94 degrees on Monday, July 20, tying a high first set in 1910.
Forecast
According to the NWS, the high for today, Thursday, July 23, is 83 degrees, and a low of 52 degrees, with thunderstorms and showers likely throughout the day and into the evening.
The high for Friday, July 24, is forecast to be 88 degrees with sunny skies in the morning turning to a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. The low is forecast at 52 degrees with chances of showers falling to 20 percent in the evening.
For Saturday, July 25, the high is forecast to be 90 degrees with showers and thunderstorms likely after noon. The chance of precipitation is 60 percent. The low is forecast at 53 degrees with just a slight chance of showers before midnight.
For Sunday, July 26, the high is forecast to be 90 degrees with sunny skies in the morning followed by a chance of thunderstorms and showers after noon. The low is forecast at 53 degrees with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight.
River flows
Flows have hovered just above record lows this past week in the San Juan and Piedra rivers.
According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), as of 2 p.m. on Wednesday, July 22, the San Juan River in downtown Pagosa Springs had a flow rate of 21.7 cubic feet per second (cfs). The day’s low flow was 19.3 cfs at about 9 a.m.
Based on 90 water years of record, the record high flow for July 22 was recorded in 1941 at 1,160 cfs, while the record low was recorded in 2002 at 16.8 cfs. The median flow for this date is 157 cfs and the mean flow is 225 cfs.
On Tuesday, July 21, at about 11 a.m., the San Juan was flowing at 17.1 cfs,
The Piedra River near Arboles was flowing at a rate of 17.6 cfs as of 2 p.m Wednesday, July 22, according to the USGS.
Based on 63 water years of record, the median flow for July 22 is 120 cfs and the mean flow is 1,199 cfs. The record high flow for this date was recorded in 1986 at 1,060 cfs, while the record low was recorded in 2002 at 10.3 cfs.
clayton@pagosasun.com
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