Record high temperatures are expected to be set this week in Pagosa Country, following a record high set on Saturday, March 14, at 64 degrees.
According to a forecast posted by Shawn Prochazka with Pagosa Weather, the previous record high for that date was 62 degrees, set in 1995.
Prochazka is also predicting more record high temperatures to have been set Wednesday, March 18 (the high temperature reached was not available by press time that day); today, Thursday, March 19; and tomorrow, Friday, March 20.
Prochazka predicted temperatures being 25 degrees above normal.
Prochazka also notes that the record high for the month of March is 73 degrees, which was set March 19, 1907, and March 23 and 25, 1940.
Warm and dry weather is expected to stick around throughout the weekend and into next week, with Prochazka indicating the next chance for precipitation possibly starting around March 25.
“I still don’t see any good soakings on the horizon, but any moisture is better than none,” Prochazka wrote.
According to the National Weather Service (NWS), the high forecast in Pagosa Springs for yesterday, March 18, was 78 degrees.
For today, Thursday, March 19, the high is forecast at 81 degrees with sunny skies and low of 34 degrees and clear skies in the evening.
Temperatures are expected to stay above freezing throughout the weekend in Pagosa Springs as a high of 82 degrees is forecast for Friday, March 20, with a low of 37 degrees and clear skies in the evening.
Similar weather is expected for Saturday, March 21, with a high of 82 degrees and sunny skies during the day followed by a low of 36 degrees and clear skies at night.
For Sunday, March 21, the high is forecast to be 77 degrees with mostly sunny skies and a low of 35 degrees with mostly cloudy skies in the evening.
Warm and dry weather is expected along the Wolf Creek Pass area over the weekend, as well, with the NWS forecasting highs in the upper 50s and lows staying above freezing.
The high for today, Thursday, March 19, along the Wolf Creek Pass area is 58 degrees with sunny skies. The low is forecast at 39 degrees with clear skies in the evening.
Tomorrow, Friday, March 20, the high is forecast at 59 degrees with sunny skies and a low of 39 degrees with clear skies at night.
For Saturday, March 20, the high is forecast to be 57 degrees with sunny skies. The low is forecast at 37 degrees with partly cloudy skies in the evening and breezy with gusts up to 35 mph possible.
For Sunday, March 21, the high is forecast at 54 degrees with mostly sunny skies and a low of 34 degrees with mostly cloudy skies at night.
Drought and snowpack
The drought conditions in the area have also worsened, with the U.S. Drought Monitor showing that 100 percent of Archuleta County was in moderate drought as of March 10, up from 47.89 percent of the county being in moderate drought and 100 percent of the county being abnormally dry the previous week.
The drought levels worsened statewide over that time, with 64.04 percent of the state considered to be in moderate drought or a higher drought level.
Portions of the state, totaling 0.83 percent, is considered to be in exceptional drought. Those areas fall in Pitkin, Eagle, Summit, Lake and Park counties, according to the Drought Monitor.
Snowpack also continues to fall below median levels in the region and across the state.
As of Wednesday, the San Miguel, Dolores, Animas and San Juan river basins sat at 45 percent of the March 18 median.
The Wolf Creek summit SNOTEL site, which sits at an elevation of 10,930 feet, was at 56 percent of the day’s median, while the Upper San Juan site, which sits at 10,140 feet, was at 49 percent of the day’s median.
On Tuesday, due to the record-breaking warm temperatures and low snowpack across Colorado, Gov. Jared Polis activated the state’s Drought Task Force and Phase 2 of Colorado’s Drought Response Plan.
Acting on recommendations from the state’s Water Conditions Monitoring Committee and partner agencies, the task force will help the state better understand and elevate the local, regional and sector-specific impacts of worsening drought conditions, a press release from the state explains.
“Colorado is experiencing the warmest year so far in our 131-year record, and one of the driest,” Polis said. “Activating the Drought Task Force will help ensure we are protecting one of our most precious resources by closely tracking impacts, supporting communities and coordinating better as we prepare for the year ahead.”
The Drought Task Force, last activated in 2020, brings together senior leadership from key state agencies, including the Colorado Department of Natural Resources, Colorado Department of Agriculture, Department of Local Affairs, and the Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, according to the press release.
It further explains that the group assesses drought conditions statewide, elevates local impacts to state leadership, and can convene regional or sector-specific workgroups to gather information and share resources.
“The Drought Task Force allows us to bring together experts from across the state to share information and better understand how drought is impacting communities across Colorado,” said Dan Gibbs, executive director of the Department of Natural Resources. “By coordinating across agencies and with local partners, we can more effectively elevate emerging impacts and ensure communities have the information and resources they need to respond.”
“Activation of the Drought Task Force is critical in light of this year’s severe drought conditions,” the press release states. “Temperatures since October mark the warmest start to a water year in the Colorado Climate Center’s 131-year record, and statewide snow water equivalent currently ranks among the lowest in more than four decades of records. About one-third of Colorado is experiencing severe drought or worse, with extreme and exceptional drought persisting in parts of the Colorado River headwaters region.”
“Drought does not impact every community in the same way,” said Lauren Ris, Colorado Water Conservation Board (CWCB) director. “The Drought Task Force helps the state understand where impacts are being felt the most and elevates those local challenges so we can better coordinate response and support communities across Colorado.”
The press release adds the CWCB’s Water Conditions Monitoring Committee will continue tracking drought indicators including snowpack, precipitation, temperature, streamflow, soil moisture and reservoir storage. If conditions continue to worsen, the governor may move the state into Phase 3 of the Drought Response Plan, which includes an official drought declaration.
San Juan River
As of noon on Wednesday, March 18, the San Juan River at Pagosa Springs was running at a flow of 286 cubic feet per second (cfs), above the median flow for March 18
The median flow for March 18 sits at 121.5 cfs, with a historical low for the date being 39 cfs and the historical high being 1,040 cfs.
clayton@pagosasun.com
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