Pagosa Country could see above-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation in mid-July, according to the National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center’s outlook for July 14-18.
That aligns with Pagosa Weather’s July 8 forecast that suggests, “Weak monsoon activity will ramp up next week,” though the organization notes later in its forecast, “The 8-14 day period… Weak monsoon activity will ramp up. We’ll see more showers and thunderstorms most afternoons, but I don’t see any big soakings on the horizon.”
The NWS forecast for Pagosa Springs indicates a chance of showers in the coming days, beginning with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon on Thursday, July 10. That pairs with a forecasted high near 89 and winds expected at 10 -15 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph.
The low Thursday night is expected to be around 46 degrees, with winds at 5-10 mph and gusting as high as 25 mph.
Friday’s forecast drops to a 10 percent chance of showers in the afternoon, with a high near 88 and winds at 5-10 mph in the afternoon gusting up to 20 mph.
The chance of showers increases to 30 percent on Saturday afternoon, according to the NWS, with a high near 86.
The forecast continues to predict a chance of showers and the highs in the mid-80s from Sunday into early next week.
Drought
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, all of Archuleta County continued to be in drought as of July 1 — the most recent drought map available.
The northwest portion of the county is listed as being in moderate drought, most of the county in severe drought and 10.64 percent of the eastern portion of the county in extreme drought.
It notes, “The Drought Monitor focuses on broad-scale conditions. Local conditions may vary.”
River conditions
The San Juan River in Pagosa Springs was running at 41.9 cubic feet per second (cfs) as of noon on Wednesday, July 9, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS).
The July 9 median streamflow for July 9 is 255 cfs, according to the USGS, with the mean flow for the same date being 447 cfs.
According to 89 years of data, the lowest river flow on July 9 came in 2002, when the river’s streamflow was at 16.4 cfs.
The highest streamflow for that date came in 1995, when the river was at 2,290 cfs.
Pagosa Weather’s Shawn Prochazka notes the current river conditions can be fatal for fish.
In an email to The SUN, Prochazka notes, “Pagosa area streams in the lower elevations are low and warm. Hooking, fighting, and releasing trout is often fatal in these conditions.”
Prochazka explains he did a river flow and temperature study on the San Juan River in 2023 — a year he notes there was a decent snowpack followed by a bad monsoon.
He notes the highest temperature he recorded on the San Juan River that year in Pagosa was 78 degrees, which it hit multiple times that August.
The average diurnal change between the low temperature and the high was 15 degrees, he notes.
But, according to Prochazka, “2025 is worse.”
He wrote, “Our mountains had 50-60% of snowpack and our monsoon has been slow to start.”
After acknowledging the river’s streamflow, he adds water temperatures “climbed into the trout danger zone” starting the afternoon of June 18.
Prochazka suggests fishing early, being done by 1 p.m., and fishing above 10,000 feet.
“Thankfully our trout can move around in streams and find cooler water for refuge. A large die-off is unlikely. But harassing the trout while they’re already stressed will often lead to dead trout,” he wrote, adding, “Let’s protect our streams and our trout!”
Fire restrictions in place on public lands
Public lands in the area continue to fall under Stage 1 fire restrictions.
On July 1, the U.S. Forest Service moved into Stage 1 restrictions for its lower-elevation lands and the Bureau of Land Management moved lands managed by the Tres Rios Field office, including lands in Archuleta County, into the restrictions.
As of Wednesday, July 9, no fire restrictions were in place for Archuleta County, with Archuleta County Sheriff Mike Le Roux noting the office continues to actively monitor the situation.
For more on the fire restrictions currently in place, visit www.PagosaSUN.com.
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