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Jim McQuiggin
jim@pagosasun.com
“Chock full of bloggy goodness.”
Unemployment, then and now
Thu, Jul 1, 2010
I’ve just looked at May’s unemployment figures for Archuleta County and, while things aren’t great, they are much better than they have been in past years (see the July 8 edition of The SUN for more details).

As I’ve mentioned in previous articles on unemployment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) only has local unemployment numbers going back to 1976. In a conversation I had with the U.S. Labor Department earlier this year, I was told that statistical models used in calculating local (county-wide) prior to 1976 were “unreliable” and, therefore, suspect.

But I digress.

In May 2010, unemployment in Archuleta County dropped to 8.6 percent, down from 9.9 percent in April and 1.1 percent better than the official (U3) unemployment figure of 9.7 percent. On the whole, this suggests that, not only are things improving locally but that things are somewhat better in Archuleta County than they are in other parts of the country.

In fact, things are currently better in the county than they have been for the most of 34 years. From 1976-1989, the county never achieved anything like “full employment” — a term labor analysts use to indicate unemployment below 5 percent. During that period, the lowest yearly average unemployment was 7.8 percent (in 1989) with a high of 21.3 percent for the yearly average in 1977. Average unemployment during that time span was 12.57 percent.

From 1990 to present, the unemployment situation in the county improved significantly. During that period, the county reached “full employment” for six years and during another seven years, the county was only one-tenth to three-tenths of a percentage point above “full employment.”

More interesting is the fact that the average yearly unemployment during the 1990-2009 time span was only 5.72 percent — well below the 12.57 average during the 70s and 80s.

The reason I raise these numbers is because I’m curious about what changed in the county beginning in the 1990s that, even during the worst recession since the Great Depression, continues to show unemployment numbers well below the historical highs of 20-34 years ago.

When I first looked at today’s BLS report, I wondered if the month of May naturally trended towards better employment, over the years. In fact, while May has performed better than January-April since 1989, that trend was not true during earlier years (in fact, May 1978 holds the record for the highest unemployment in Archuleta County at 30.9 percent).

Certainly, we’d all like to see unemployment to fall to those levels that analysts call “full employment” and that will require some very creative thinking on the part of local government, local businesses and the CDC.

Likewise, Congress and the Obama administration have not acted in a way to adequately address national unemployment that is, for all intents and purposes, a crisis. Overly concerned with deficits, neither Congress nor the president seem to realize that the best way to tackle long-term deficits is to ensure long-term employment.